I have been trying to remember as far as my first World Cup memories go back, if the big favourite before each World Cup actually won the competition. Let’s see if we can detect a trend here:
1974: The huge favourite before and during the German World Cup was Holland. Result: they were beaten 2 – 1 by Germany in the final.
1978: Holland was again favourite and once again lost in the final 3 – 1 to host country Argentina.
1982: Brazil couldn’t loose but they did in the 2nd round against Italy.
1986: Brazil again the favourite loose in the quarter finals to France.
1990: At the start of the Italian World Cup there were no real favourites.
1994: Many thought Brazil would win and they did!
1998 : Brazil again the favourite but lost to France in the final.
2002: Many experts thought Argentina would win the Japan/South Korea World Cup but they were eliminated during the 1st round.
2006: The odds were on Brazil and they lost in the quarter final to France once again.
Conclusion: Only once in the last 9 World Cups did the favourite team actually win it. I am sure this trend is also valid if you go back to earlier World Cups, think Hungary in 1956 and of course Brazil in 1950!
According to many betting sites, Spain is the most likely team to win the South Africa World Cup. Following the trend I just described, would you bet on them?
Maracanazos like to spot trends.
[...] They are on par with Spain to win the World Cup and that isn’t always a good sign. [...]