Brilliant move last Friday by new French coach Laurent Blanc. The “President” as Blanc is called since his days playing with France, outsmarted all those that wanted to have the entire French squad banned forever. Blanc kicked out the team that had ashamed the whole of France for the first friendly againt Norway on August 11. Hmmm the real punishment would have been to send them all play that game! Blanc knows his stuff and most of all that this 2 year contract with the French Football Federation will demand to the minimum that the tricolores qualify for the 2012 Euro. Since there is shortage of real talent right now, Blanc can’t afford to kick himself in the foot and not count on the likes of say Lloris, Toulalan, Diaby, and Malouda. With this smart move, Blanc can then start with a clean sheet and build the team best fit to qualify for the Euro. And that will certainly mean keeping some of the 23 “black sheep”!
Spain has done it! They have become the 8th country in the history of the World Cup to proudly boast a star on their roja shirts! I am very happy for Iniesta who scored the winning goal. First of all he proves wrong all those that think that you need to have a body builded corpulence to make it in football. Then I like this player’s style. He plays forward, knows when to pass the ball and when to keep it and is one of the rare confrontational dribblers out there. In my mind he was the best player of the final. Another decisive factor in Spain’s win was Fabregas’s entry. He brought fast forward movements to the Spanish side who I felt was sometimes playing too laterally with Xavi.
I was very disappointed by the Dutch. Where have they left their flamboyant football? It is now the second time that they leave a violent mark on the World Cup, the first time being the infamous eighth final against Portugal in 2006. The quatuor which I had thought could make the difference was unable to get sufficient ammunitions from the midfield and Van Persie was transparent.
Apart from the final, here is my take on this 19th World Cup:
There were no new revolutionary or even marked evolutionary strategies.
I missed one single breathtaking game like Germany-Italy in 1970, Argentina-Peru in 1978, France-Germany in 1982, France-Brazil in 1986, England-Cameroon in 1990. The closest was probably Uruguay-Ghana for the incredible cliff-hanging suspense of that game.
The World Cup will end on Sunday with a first-time winner since neither the Netherlands nor Spain have ever won the trophy. Either country will become the 8th nation to ever win a World Cup. If you compare that to the number of countries who participate in the World Cup (including the qualifying rounds), it is probably one of the lowest ratios of any sport. It will also be the first time that a European team will win the World Cup outside of the European continent. Here is my analysis of the final in 7 points:
Both teams are turned towards an offensive style. They both privilige attacking before defending.
Spain is a master in keeping the ball with a high percentage of completed passes. It is very difficult to steal the ball from them. It is almost a clone of how the Barça plays since 7 players are from the Blaugrana team.
The Netherlands have a key advantage in my mind since they have 4 mid-field/forwards that can all score: Kuyt, Van Persie, Robben, and Schneider. This is no longer the case with Spain who can only count on Villa since Torres is out of shape (until now at least).
The Spanish team – like Barça – has become somewhat too systematic in its way of playing. The Netherlands on the other hand have more of an erratic behaviour on the pitch which could play to their advantage.
Casillas is back on top form and can win a match to himself. That is not the case of Holland’s Stekelenburg.
Spains’s defense is stronger than the Netherland’s which has shown weaknesses since the beginning of the World Cup.
England’s Howard Web will referee the final. That is good news for both teams and for football in general since he was one the rare referees to perform during this tournament.
I am very uncertain about the outcome of the final in view of the points listed above. What do you think are the chances of each team? Don’t count on Paul the Octopus this time since I just heard that he will probably not be asked to guess the World Cup final winner!
I’m not taking too many risks here, the Selecção has won 28% of the past World Cups (5 out of 18)…So what are the pros here:
Dunga is in firm control of his team. I don’t think there will be late samba dancing in South African night clubs.
There don’t seem to be ego problems within the team, anyway Dunga would not permit it.
They probably have the best defense of all 32 teams, the only question mark is left defender Bastos who plays midfield with his club (Olympique Lyonnais).
Brazil plays a rare blend of 4 – 2 – 2 -2 which could prove very disturbing for their opponents.
Both Robinho and Kaka have had time to recover from difficult seasons; Robinho raising his self-confidence at Santos after the Man City fiasco and Kaka temporarily (?) recovering from his groin problems.
And the cons:
They are on par with Spain to win the World Cup and that isn’t always a good sign.
They are in the “Group of Death” which could weaken them in the 2nd round of the competition.
If Kaka is not in top form, Brazil will have a problem in the midfield.
Listen to Dunga in the following video, he talks about “coherence, conviction and commitment”. Will these 3 “Cs” prove to be the winning recipe?
So what do you think are the chances of the auriverdes winning their 6th World Cup?
Argentina is in group B where I have already covered Nigeria, Greece and South Korea. Twice World Champions in 1978 and 1986 and 2 time finalist in 1930 and 1990, Argentina is almost always amongst the top contenders to win any World Cup.
The albicelestes have a unique style amongst South American teams known as toque. One could describe toque as the ability to create a unique style by the succession of inventive passes. Then I would say that there is something in the flexibility of Argentinian ankles that gives them a distinct ability in the art of dribbling. The combination of the dribbling and toque skills produces exceptional players like Di Stefano, Kempes, Messi and of course Maradona.
Argentina had a complicated qualifying round finishing only 4th of the South American teams barely avoiding the 5th place which would have meant a complicated playoff game. Maradona tried out a record 70+ players and never seemed to set for a focused way of playing. Paradoxically, Maradona seems to privilege a defensive stance that reminds me of the 1986 World Champion team. The big difference however between that team and the current one was Maradona the player! Messi, who is supposed to be el Pibe’s heir, is totally lost and doesn’t have the equivalents of Iniesta and Xavi when he plays for Barça. I only see Argentina going far if Maradona organises his team so that Messi can benefit from a decent midfield support.
Good luck to the albicelestes and enjoy their national football song “Vamos Vamos Argentina”
I have been trying to remember as far as my first World Cup memories go back, if the big favourite before each World Cup actually won the competition. Let’s see if we can detect a trend here:
1974: The huge favourite before and during the German World Cup was Holland. Result: they were beaten 2 – 1 by Germany in the final.
1978: Holland was again favourite and once again lost in the final 3 – 1 to host country Argentina.
1982: Brazil couldn’t loose but they did in the 2nd round against Italy.
1986: Brazil again the favourite loose in the quarter finals to France.
1990: At the start of the Italian World Cup there were no real favourites.
1994: Many thought Brazil would win and they did!
1998 : Brazil again the favourite but lost to France in the final.
2002: Many experts thought Argentina would win the Japan/South Korea World Cup but they were eliminated during the 1st round.
2006: The odds were on Brazil and they lost in the quarter final to France once again.
Conclusion: Only once in the last 9 World Cups did the favourite team actually win it. I am sure this trend is also valid if you go back to earlier World Cups, think Hungary in 1956 and of course Brazil in 1950!
According to many betting sites, Spain is the most likely team to win the South Africa World Cup. Following the trend I just described, would you bet on them?
Nigeria is part of Group B with Greece, which I already covered, South Korea which I also discussed, and Argentina.
The Nigerian team, also known as the Super Eagles, have qualified for 4 World Cups including the one to be played in South Africa. They almost caused a major suprise in their first World Cup in 1994, narrowly loosing during the extra time to Italy in the second round. Many fans thought that they would go further during the 1998 World Cup in France but they lost heavily to Denmark 4 – 1 in the first leg of the second round. Nigeria didn’t make it past the first round in the 2002 World Cup. The Super Eagles have also won 2 Africa Nations Cup and an Olympic title in Atlanta in 1996 which was the first time an African team won an international football event against non African teams.
The current squad doesn’t have the talent of the team of the nineties but I think they will manage to qualify by finishing second to Argentina.
On a personal note, I was at the Nigeria – Bulgaria match during the 1998 World Cup game in Paris in the Parc des Princes amongst the Nigerian fans and I can tell you they certainly know how to party in good humour!
The Netherlands were my preferred team of the 1970s. I think I have never been more impressed by a team than the famous 1974 squad led by one of my 2 favourite players, Johan Cruyff (the other one being Michel Platini). Driven by Ajax Amsterdam’s revolutionary “total football” where any player could take over the role of another one, Dutch football swarmed over Europe during a great part of the seventies. Ajax won 3 European Club finals in a row from 1971 to 1973 and the Dutch national team made it to the final in the 1974 and 1978 World Cups.
The 1974 World Cup final against Germany was certainly one of 3 the major upsets of World Cup history, along with Maracanazo, of course, and the dramatic Bern final of 1954 between Germany and Hungary. Imagine the scene, after blowing his whistle to kick off the match, the next action the referee takes is to call a penalty for the Dutch team just after 1 minute of play time and with no German player even touching the ball! The big mistake the Dutch then made after Neeskens had converted the penalty was to try and humiliate the Mannschaft in front of their own Munich crowd. Instead of playing their usual flamboyant game, the Dutch underestimated a great German team who won thanks to “Der Bomber” ie Gerd Müller with a goal so characteristic of his style (see video). It was then too late for the Netherlands to wake up and defeat the best goalkeeper of the competition, Sepp Maier.
The Dutch again made it to the final in the 1978 World Cup against host team Argentina this time. Although they had lost Cruyff who had refused to play for the national team after the 1976 Euro, the team led by Johnny Repp and Robby Rensenbrink lost 3 – 1 during over time despite an 89th minute shot against the goal post by Rensenbrink. I didn’t enjoy that team as much as the 1974 one, it was a paler copy and the absence of Cruyff showed many times.
The Dutch then went through a couple of bad years until the inventor of total football, Rinus Michels, coached the 1988 new generation team which had 3 extremely talented players: Marco Van Basten, Ruud Gullit and Frank Rijkaard. The Dutch won the 1988 Euro held in Germany and revenged the 1974 team by defeating Germany in the semi-final.
In the following tournaments, the Netherlands suffered from the penalty shootout syndrome loosing in this exercise against Denmark in the Euro 1992, against France in the Euro 1996, against Brazil in the semi-final of the 1998 World Cup and against Italy in the Euro 2000! Talk about a curse here!
I was very disappointed with their last World Cup performance in Germany where the team showed unusual violence notably when they got eliminated against Portugal with 16 yellow and 4 red cards being distributed during the game setting a new infamous World Cup record.
I still see the Netherlands finishing first of Group E but I’m not sure how the current squad will perform after that. Robbie Van Persie is only going to be back in March/April and so might be short of form for June. Van der Vart and Huntelaar hardly play for their respective Real Madrid and Milan AC teams so there again play time will be short before the World Cup.
Maracanazos love revolutionary football strategies.
Denmark is the third team I am reviewing in the series about the 32 countries participating in the next World Cup in South Africa. I already covered Cameroon and Japan which are in the same group as Denmark.
Denmark’s star moment in international football is undoubtedly when they won the 1992 Euro organised in Sweden. Denmark had not even qualified for that competion but were called in to replace Yugoslavia who had been banned despite qualifying due to sanctions imposed by the international community during the Yugoslav wars. I remember that many journalists were suprised at how relaxed the Danish players seemed to be during the competition contrarily to so many other teams who bunkerised thelselves from the outside world (and still do).
The first Danish star I recall was Allan Simonsen who played for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Despite his frailness, Simonsen was a world-class dribbler and wonderful to watch. Simonsen unfortunately broke his leg in the game against France in the 1984 Euro. That Euro saw a great Danish team make it to the semi-finals against Spain thanks to 2 other great champions, Michael Laudrup and Preben Elkjær. As much as Laudrup was a stylish player displaying incredible finesse and technique, Preben Elkjær was the “buffalo” with a no-nonsense go for the goal attitude as well as exceptional dribbling skills. He remains my favourite Danish player of all times, I just loved his incredible drive and determination. Unfortunately for his team, Preben missed his penalty during the penalty shoot-out against Spain in the 1984 Euro which saw Spain then play and loose the final against France.
During the 1986 World Cup held in Mexico, Denmark should have gone much further than they did. As often during WorldCups, teams that start off too strong have problems maintaining their level during the second round. That is exactly waht happened to Denmark who impressively won their first round group but then lost in the eighth finals against Spain again with a memorable bad pass by Jesper Olsen that his fellow team mates never recovered from.
After some disappointing years, Denmark showed up again during the 1998 World Cup in France winning a great 4 – 1 victory over Nigeria in the eighth finals and only loosing 3 – 2 againt Brazil in the quarter finals after a memorable match (see video).
In recent years, Denmark has often come out strong from the first round groups, as in the 2002 World Cup and 2004 Euro (with a controversial last minute tie againt Sweden which eliminated Italy), but then failed to move ahead during the second rounds. In this World Cup’s qualifying group, Denmark finshed a strong first ahead of Portugal and Sweden. However, I see them come in third of Group E behind The Netherlands and Cameroon.
Japan is the second national team I am reviewing after Cameroon in my series about the 32 countries participating in the World Cup in South Africa. Japan is in Group E along with the Netherlands, Cameroon and Denmark. Japan doesn’t have a long history in this competition having qualified only 4 times in 18 World Cups (counting the one in South Africa).
Japan first qualified for the 1998 World Cup in France and was eliminated in the first round. They then went to the second round in the 2002 World Cup which Japan co-hosted with South Korea. In the last edition, Japan again didn’t make it to the second round. Japan has been more successful when competing in the Asian Cup, winning 3 times recently in 1992, 2000 and 2004. Japan also got a bronze medal finishing 3rd in the 1968 Mexico Olympics.
From matches I have seen in the past World Cups, Japanese football strikes me as being very fast paced but with limited physical capacities. I also find their style somewhat predictive and their defense too weak.
I see them coming last in their group in the World Cup in South Africa.
