Right, that’s a kind of an odd way to start a post but it refers to my almost complete disaster at predicting who would win the Africa Cup of Nations quarter finals. I only got one of the 4 matches right with Nigeria winning with difficulty over Zambia in the penalty shoot-out. In all other 3 I got it wrong. Egypyt got a well deserved victory over Cameroon with the latter team making unthinkable blunders at this level. Algeria also won a convincing victory against Ivory Coast where it now doesn’t look certain coach Vahid Halilhodzic will still be coaching the Elephants for the World Cup. Finally, Ghana beat host country Angola. This all proves football is one of the collective sports where surprises can be many. I would argue that the nature of the game makes predictions more hazardous than say in sports like rugby or basketball.
The 2 semi-finals played today will see Egypt play Algeria in a much anticipated confrontation after the World Cup qualifying matches between the 2 teams, and Nigeria facing Ghana. This time I won’t make any predictions .
Update : Egypt beat Algeria 4 – 0 with the Algerians finishing with only 8 players! In the other semi-final, Ghana beat Nigeria 1 – 0.
The first round of the Africa Cup of Nations is over. The major controversy, apart from the dramatic incidents which affected the Togolese team, was the ranking system the Confederation of African football chose to decide which team goes through in case of the same number of points. Instead of simply going for the overall goal difference as the first criteria, the CAF chose the particular goal difference in the match between the 2 teams who ended with the same number of points.
The first round saw strong performances by Egypt, good shows by Zambia, Nigeria, Angola, average for Ivory Coast, and disappointing performances by Algeria, Ghana and notably Cameroon. However, I am always wary of teams that start off too strong in the first rounds of major competitions since they can loose quite a lot of stamina along the way.
Here are my favourites for the quarter-finals which are held on Sunday and Monday :
Angola – Ghana : Angola (they play at home and have showed real talent)
Ivory Coast – Algeria : Ivory Coast and I bet Drogba will score
Egypt – Cameroon : The big game of these quarter finals. The Egyptians owe their supporters a revenge after their World Cup elimination and have been really impressive since the start of the competition. Cameroon on the other hand has been under-average but you never know with Eto’o! I think it will be really close, a tie ending with penalty shoot-outs and Cameroon winning.
Zambia – Nigeria : I vote for Nigeria in this game due to their experience.
That seems to be what coach Le Guen thinks of the Africa Cup of Nations (ACN). There is a disconnect between Le Guen on the one side, and the Cameroon Football Federation, the fans, some players and the staff on the other. Le Guen’s main objective is the World Cup while the Federation has set winning the ACN and reaching the World Cup semi-finals…
I think Le Guen is making a major mistake. By treating the ACN as some kind of pre-World Cup test drive, Cameroon’s coach is not using the in-house confidence which is one of the main characteristics of the Lions Indomptables. The end result is that the team sits between two chairs and that showed in their first game which they lost yesterday 1-0 to Gabon. Cameroon doesn’t go to the ACN as an outsider, it always participates with the firm belief that they will win it. It doesn’t surprise me that Le Guen acts this way, he already did this when coaching the Paris Saint-Germain, prioritizing the French Premier League over the then called UEFA Championship. The result is that they didn’t win either. I believe victories call other ones and you just can’t settle for some form of escapism.
I didn’t say it unfortunately, those where the words of Patrick MBoma yesterday on RMC’c After Foot show. Patrick Mboma should know, he was one of Cameroon’s stars at the end of 1990s and beginning of 2000, participating in the 1998 and 2002 World Cups, winning the Africa Cup of Nations in 2000 and 2002 as well as getting the gold medal in the 2000 Olympics. This post is the first of a series where I will be reviewing the 32 teams that have qualified for the World Cup.
My first memory of Cameroon goes back to their 1982 World Cup where they were unfairly eliminated in the first-round with a valid goal against Italy which was ruled off-side. That referee decision has quite an impact on the competition since Italy then went off to win their 3rd World Cup! By the way, that was also the only time that I recall a team, Italy of course, who else could it have been, qualifying to the 2nd round after having tied 3 games in the first one! Roger Milla was already Cameroon’s star attacker back then.
Roger Milla, then aged 38, was also part of the Cameroon team in the 1990 World Cup which beat Argentina in the opening game and then lost in extra-time in an epic quarter final against England. That team played one of the best footballs I have ever seen and had they had just an ounce more experience, they could have gone much further. For the anecdote, Milla then also participated at age 42 in the less successful Cameroon campaign in the US 1994 World Cup.
The current squad is probably the best balanced of all African teams, and although I still put the Ivory Coast as my favourite to win the Africa Cup of Nations, I put my bets on Cameroon going the furthest of all African teams in the next World Cup. After a slow start in their qualifying group which saw the exit of coach Pfister, replaced by Paul Le Guen, Cameroon finished first of their group ahead of Gabon, Togo and Morocco. Le Guen decided to replace legendary Rigobert Song as the captain by the no less talented Samuel Eto’o. Eto’o embraced his new role and his influence on the team seems to be very strong. The spinal chord of the team (by that I mean the all important central line that goes from the goalkeeper, to the middle defense players, the centrefield and centre-forward) is strong with Kameni, André Bikey and Nicolas Nkoulou, Achille Emana and Samuel Eto’o. Emana is capable of incredible games but can also sometimes completely miss out.
What sets Cameroun apart from all other African teams as Patrick Mboma said is the great belief the players have in their technical and physical capacities. It’s as if they start a game a goal ahead so strong is their self-confidence. Doesn’t that remind you of so many Mannschaft teams ? They never seem to loose faith and that is a huge plus factor when facing other African teams who can disintegrate in a matter of minutes (see Angola – Mali game yesterday).
Cameroun are in Group E of the World Cup with the Netherlands, Denmark, and Japan. I see Cameroon finishing second behind the Netherlands.
So how do you think the Lions Indomptables (the nickname of the team) will do in this year’s Africa Cup of Nations and World Cup?
Maracanazos like lions.
Here is a video of that legendary quarter final against England in the 1990 World Cup.
Host country Angola kicked off the Africa Cup of Nations yesterday against Mali which is my outsider for the competition. The least than can be said is that the game was an incredible roller coaster ride with Angola winning 4-0 until the 76th minute and Mali scoring 4 times in 15 minutes! I think that this type of scenario can only happen with African teams (and Liverpool of course ). The African way of playing the game can go from the highest exuberance to total decay. I think the trick for the coaches that head some of these teams is to infuse just the minimum level of “realism” but keep the magical “insanity” which makes African teams such a pleasure to watch.
Since yesterday’s tragic events, the Togolose team have decided to quit the competition. I fully understand their decision. Souleymane Habuba, the spokesperson of the Confederation of African Football (CAN), said that the Togolese should have taken a plane instead of driving through the unstable Cabinda region by bus. In that case, why is Cabinda also a venue for some of the matches? The CAN doesn’t seem to have anticipated the risks here and now they are blaming the Togolese team for how they got to Angola! Which team will now replace Togo and play against Ghana on January 11?
Let’s now discuss more positive aspects and how I see this 27th Africa Cup of Nations. This year’s event has double importance. Not only will it designate the successor to the reigning African champion, Egypt, who won the trophy in Ghana 2 years go by defeating Cameroon 1 – 0 in the final, but it is also a live test for the 5 African teams qualified for the World Cup (Ghana, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Algeria, and Nigeria).
Aside from the usual favourites which for me are Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Ghana , Egypt and Algeria, I see Mali playing the outsider role. The Malians came second to Ghana during the World Cup qualifying matches but they have some top players like FC Seville’s Frédéric Kanouté, Juventus’s Sissoko, and Barça’s Seydou Keita.
Some commentators say that the Africa Cup of Nations is often overrated and that its level is far under its European and South American counterparts. I would disagree with this opinion due to the following factors:
The quality of the pitches is often appalling and I wonder how European teams would fare in the same circumstances?
The matches are often played during the day when the temperature is in the 30° C and above.
The competence of the referees is often under par and that is an understatement!
The tactical knowledge of the teams has increased a lot in the past years with many African players being exposed to top European football clubs and foreign coaches bringing years of experience on board.
My personal vote goes to the Ivory Coast Elephants. Not only are they my preferred African team but I also think that coach Vahid Halilhodzic and players such as Drogba, Yaya Touré, Kolo Touré and Eboué have the right combination of defending and attacking skills to bring back the trophy which Ivory Coast won only once in 1992. I also think that the tournament is an ideal preparation for them before they tackle their “Group of Death” in June during the World Cup!
Maracanazos love the incomparable African football skills.
The Togo football team, on its way to the Africa Cup of Nations, was shot at by Cabinda rebels nearby the Angolan border . This happened just a few hours ago and there are reports that 2 players and a bus driver are seriously injured. Cabinda rebels represent a separatist movement that is fighting for independence from the Angolan state. The Cabinda region is rich with oil and has been a zone of turmoil since the 1960s.
This tragic event shows how heavily publicized events like the Africa Cup of Nations can become hostage to political pressures of all sorts and there are even some voices like those of Claude Leroy, the former coach of Cameroon and Ghana, who question if the tournament should still be held. There is always a debate here about caving in or not, but in any case the damage is done and human lives are at stake here.
Update: The Confederation of African Football (CAF) has just decided that the Africa Cup of Nations will be played.
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? They never seem to loose faith and that is a huge plus factor when facing other African teams who can disintegrate in a matter of minutes (see 
